Kazakhstan is the key regulator of GU-12 in 2025
The Republic of Kazakhstan traditionally occupies a central place in transit between Russia, Central Asian countries, China and the Southern direction (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Iran). The geography of the situation makes the country a natural coordinator of transit flows, and the presence of a common infrastructure with Russia and Belarus is a key participant in the regulation of GU-12 overhead.
By 2025, Kazakhstan’s importance has increased even further due to the modernization of infrastructure, the strengthening of the role of the national operator and the redistribution of transit routes after the changing political and economic conditions in the region.
GU-12 as a unified form of cargo clearance is a mandatory tool for the coordination of transit. Today, Kazakhstan determines most of the rules, quotas, restrictions and conditions for carriers passing through the country.
Causes of Kazakhstan’s dominance in GU-12 regulation
Control of key transit corridors
Several major railway directions of the region pass through Kazakhstan:
- North-South (Russia-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran);
- West-East (China-Kazakhstan-Russia/Europe)
- Central transit (China – Kazakhstan – Uzbekistan).
Each of these routes requires a single regulator, which is able to establish rules for passing and agreeing. Kazakhstan, having a developed network of GU-12 coordination points, actually retains control over most of the cargo moving between the countries.
Policy to strengthen the role of the national operator
Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ) National Operator has significantly expanded regulatory instruments in recent years:
- Digitalization of permits;
- single tariff windows;
- integrated cargo inspection systems;
- strengthening control over transit through border crossings.
This has led to the fact that most carriers are now forced to obtain permits through Kazakhstan, regardless of the direction of movement.
Growth in transit from China
By 2025, China has significantly increased the volume of cargo going to Central Asia and Europe. Most of these flows go either through Dostyk-Alashankou or through Khorgos-Altynkol. Both crossings are in Kazakhstan, which means that Kazakhstan regulates the GU-12 permits for all cargoes traveling further through the CIS.
Practice of GU-12 coordination in 2025: what has changed
New rules and requirements
Several important changes were introduced in 2025:
- mandatory quotas have been introduced for certain categories of cargo (grain, petrochemicals, containers);
- increased requirements for verification of the origin of goods;
- additional verification of the consignor and recipient is introduced;
- The terms for issuing permits have been reduced, but the number of automatic refusals in case of data discrepancy has been increased.
Increase in the number of refusals for formal reasons n
The main reasons for refusals:
- inconsistency of the route with the declared corridors;
- errors in the encoding of goods (especially in multimodal schemes);
- attempt to transit through congested nodes;
- inconsistency of the tariff part and invalidity of the contract of carriage.
In 2025, the process became stricter, but more transparent: the rules are uniform and apply to all carriers.
Concentrating control on key nodes
The most critical were the transitions:
- Dosty - Alashankou;
- Altynkol to Khorgos;
- Saryagash - Keles;
- Bolashak - Serechs;
- Beineu-Kungrad.
It is through them that the main cross-border flows, and therefore most GU-12 permits, pass.
Impact of Kazakhstan on regional transportation: benefits and risks
Positive effects
- Unification of rules: Carriers operate according to a single standard, which reduces costs.
- Increasing the speed of harmonization: Digital tools have accelerated the issuance of permits.
- Transit predictability: Fixed tariffs and transparent procedure.
- Increased opportunities for multimodal schemes: Integration with autologistics and Caspian Sea ports.
Risks and limitations
- Monopolization of the process: Kazakhstan has become the only decision-making center for most GU-12s.
- Infrastructure overload: A number of transitions in 2025 worked at the maximum capacity.
- Dependence of other countries: Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan are heavily dependent on the decisions of CTJ.
- Tariff risks: Kazakhstan is able to manage transit costs flexibly.
Forecast for 2026 and the role of Kazakhstan in the future
Strengthened regional positions
Kazakhstan is expected to maintain and even strengthen its status as the main regulator of GU-12 permits by:
- launch of additional logistics centers;
- modernization of border crossings;
- increase the capacity of lines in the east direction.
Possible Changes to GU-12 Rules
Experts predict:
- transition to a fully automated permitting system;
- The emergence of categories of “green corridor” for verified carriers;
- expanding the list of goods requiring quotas;
- introduction of additional monitoring of the origin of cargo due to global sanctions conditions.
Kazakhstan’s growing influence in supply chains
This is especially true for the following areas:
- China → Uzbekistan / Turkmenistan / Kyrgyzstan;
- Russia → Iran;
- Europe → Kazakhstan → Central Asia.
By the end of 2025, the Republic of Kazakhstan finally secured the status of the main regulator of railway permits GU-12. Due to its geographical location, modernization of infrastructure and the policy of centralization of transit management, Kazakhstan has become a key link in transportation throughout the region.
This brings stability and transparency to logistics, but at the same time increases the dependence of neighboring countries on the decisions of the Kazakh regulator.
