VAT refund or loss?

Oct. 2, 2025 515 views

Competent VAT management is becoming a critical condition for the profitability of imports.

Imports to Russia in 2025 became much more complicated and expensive. Margins in most foreign trade contracts decreased 10-15%This means that the VAT refund is 20% of the transaction amount It was no longer just a nice bonus and became Key element of financial planning.

If the company loses the right to reimbursement, delivery may go “in the red” even if the goods are successfully sold. That is why the competent management of VAT becomes a critical condition for the profitability of imports.

The New Reality: Control Increased

2025 brought significant changes in tax administration practices.
Major trends:

The number of refusals in VAT refunds increased by 37% compared to 2024.
Timing of desk inspections For “risk” categories of goods increased from 45 to 68 days.
Automatic cross control Now compares data from customs declarations with banking transactions. Any discrepancies are a signal to check.

Conclusion: Tax authorities no longer treat VAT refunds as a routine. This is a complete element of tax control, requiring perfect accuracy and transparency at each stage of delivery.

“Risk Zones”: what supplies are under special control

Some categories of goods cause increased attention of tax authorities. Among them:

Dual-use goods They are particularly sensitive in terms of export controls.
Electronic components HS 8541–8542 is a popular category with a high rate of abuse.
Equipment and componentsRequire licenses and special permits.

Such supplies are often required. spreadsheetincluding:

technical passports and instructions,
certificates of conformity,
import permits,
Logistics routes schemes,
Detailed transportation calculations.

Five key elements of a successful VAT refund

1. Contract and terms of delivery

INCOTERMS must strictly conform to the actual logistics.
Example: if delivery is carried out by the seller, use of the term EXW (Self-export) can be regarded as a distortion of the terms of the transaction.

Recommendation: Coordinate the terms with lawyers and logisticians at the stage of concluding the contract.

2. Bank payments

Any discrepancy between the contract value, invoice and payment order is suspicious.

Amounts should penny.
Currency, details of the parties and the purpose of payment must comply with the contract.

Even the deviation 1-2% may be grounds for in-depth inspection or denial of compensation.

3. Transport documentation

Logistics errors are the second most common cause of failure.

Typical problems:

lack of data on the route and delivery time,
discrepancy between the declared mode of transport and the actual,
Lack of documents on multimodal sections of the route.

Recommendation: The entire chain, from a warehouse in China to a customs post in Russia, must be documented.

4. Timeliness of documents

Chronology is one of the key criteria for tax.

Dates in contracts, invoices, transport documents and payments must coincide with the actual movement of the goods.
Time inconsistencies are perceived as a “marker of a questionable transaction.”

Council: Keep a single delivery calendar and check the compliance of all documents before submitting the declaration.

5. Working with brokers and logistics

Even perfectly designed documents can be spoiled at the junction with contractors.

The customs broker must fill out the declaration correctly.
Logistics company – provide a complete package of transport documents.
Accounting – correctly reflect the movement of goods and money.

Recommendation: Implement an internal document management standard and checklists for all participants in the foreign trade process.

What has changed in 2025: what to look for

1. Possible blocking of part of VAT

Reservation mechanism to be discussed before 20% refund amount in a separate account until the verification is completed. This could increase the financial burden on importers.

2. Increased attention to new companies

If the history of the company on the market is shorter than two years, the probability of refusal of refund is 1.5-2 times higher. This is especially true of supplies from China.

3. Origin of goods and country logistics

The FTS pays more attention to documents of origin – especially for shipments from Southeast Asia, where re-export schemes are common.

Financial strategy: VAT refund as a profit management tool

The correct approach to VAT refund allows:

Increase the actual profitability of the transaction 15-20%.
Release working capital and use it for the next purchase,
Reduce tax risks and the likelihood of inspections.

Council: Consider VAT refunds not as a “tax procedure” but as part of the transaction’s financial cycle. The final result of your import depends on it.

With the margin in import operations shrinking to a minimum, VAT refunds have become the point where the fate of the business is decided.

Errors in documents These are not just delays, but direct losses.
Control by FNS This is not a temporary phenomenon, but a new norm.
Properly structured processes It is an instrument of competitive advantage.

Companies that build a transparent document management system, establish internal controls and interact with trusted partners will not only be able to return VAT, but also turn it into a source of growth and stability.