Conditions of flour transportation to Afghanistan and Tajikistan are changing

In 2024-2025, Russia significantly increased flour Central Asian countries. A special direction of steel supplies to Afghanistan and TajikistanThere is a strong and stable demand for Russian products. Afghanistan alone increased flour purchases by more than 40% in 2024, and Tajikistan by about 25%, which directly affects logistics, infrastructure loading and transportation costs.

The increase has led to the fact that existing rail fares 2025Transit rates through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and the terms of delivery of flour to Dushanbe, Hairaton and other hub stations ceased to be optimal. As a result, railways and transit countries began to revise the conditions in order to adapt the corridors to high load and make them more efficient. flour export logistics More profitable and predictable.

This process affects railTransit tariffs, grain and flour rates, as well as the entire system of transport corridors in Russia and Central Asia.

How did the logistics of delivery of flour to Central Asia until 2025

Main routes

Prior to the increase in exports, two key areas were applied:

Russia → Kazakhstan → Uzbekistan → Afghanistan (Hairaton)

Used for transport:

• flour;
• grains;
• feed;
• related products.

Russia → Kazakhstan → Tajikistan (via Sogd, Dushanbe)

Classic route for:

• flour supplies;
• croup
• coarse grain.

Transport infrastructure

Main crossings:

• saryagash (Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan)
• keles
• Serahs (Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran, used in limited use)
• highraton (node station for Afghanistan)

Existing tariffs pending revision

• export railway tariffs: approximately 4,000-9,000 rubles / wagons, depending on the distance and the station of departure;
• transit through Kazakhstan – stable but high rates for grain and flour;
• transit through Uzbekistan - tariffs of 2023-2024 were not designed for a sharply increased volume of cargo.

This model worked as long as the traffic volume remained moderate. However, after the growth of flour exports from Russia, the logistics system came to the limit of capacity.

Why the previous tariffs are not relevant

The situation changed in 2024-2025 for several reasons.

1. Large regular volume of cargo

Export of flour to Afghanistan and Tajikistan flowingNot episodic. This affected:

• loading of railways;
• shortage of wagons;
• delays at narrow crossings;
• Flexible seasonal tariffs are required.

2. Exporters' pressure to reduce value

Large suppliers require:

• fixed rates;
• projected costs;
• Discount for regular loading.

3. Economic economies of scale

Large batches allow you to reduce the cost of carriage, but only when revising tariffs.

4. Loading of transport corridors

Routes through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan became congested. At Saryagash and Keles stations, queues of transit cars are recorded.

5. Changing the logistics of neighbouring countries

Tajikistan and Afghanistan began importing more flour instead of grain, which increases the volume of wagons leaving Russia, as flour requires faster delivery.

What tariff changes are expected in 2025

Revision of railway tariffs 2025

It is expected that within the framework of export support will be introduced:

• special rates for senders of flour and grain;
• seasonal rates (winter/summer);
• preferences with a large volume of shipments;
• Discounts for routes to Afghanistan and Tajikistan.

This is partly due to the fact that Impact of flour exports on logistics Volumes increased and infrastructure utilization increased by 12-17%.

Negotiations on transit tariffs

Three directions are decided at once:

Through Kazakhstan

Key transit. Planned:

• preferential tariffs for Russian cargo;
• redistribution of freight traffic;
• New flour tariff nets.

Through Uzbekistan

Changes are expected:

• reduction of transit tariffs for goods with high regularity;
• Creation of “agriological corridors”.

Through Turkmenistan and Sarakhs Station

It is considered as an additional route for unloading bottlenecks.

Route optimization

New delivery schemes are emerging:

• Moscow → Novorossiysk → Kazakhstan → Afghanistan
• Rostov → Kazakhstan → Dushanbe
• routes through Altai and southern Kazakhstan

New transport corridors

In 2025, the following are discussed:

• Russia – Kazakhstan – Uzbekistan – Afghanistan
• Russia-Kazakhstan-Tajikistan
• Corridor integration into ECO infrastructure

Forecast and recommendations for exporters

1. How to Prepare for Tariff Changes

• Put in the contracts "floating" tariffs with adjustment once a quarter.
• Enter long-term contracts with logistics operators.
• Take into account the increase in the cost of transit through Kazakhstan during peak periods.

2. What to focus on in 2025

• Projected growth in demand in Afghanistan and Tajikistan.
• Expansion of transit volumes through Uzbekistan.
• The introduction of special tariffs for flour exporters.
• Optimization of routes and increase the capacity of stations.

3. Strategic recommendations

• Use combined routes to reduce risks.
• Compare tariffs of large logistics companies with those of private operators.
• Monitor transit conditions of Central Asian countries on a monthly basis.

The growth of flour exports from Russia to Afghanistan and Tajikistan has become a key factor that will change the entire logistics of Central Asia in 2025. Regular transportation of large volumes led to the need rail tariff revisionOptimization of transit rates of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, development of new transport corridors and introduction of special tariffs of Russian Railways.

The logistics system of Russia and Central Asia is gradually adapting to the new scale of cargo traffic, and flour exports are turning into one of the key drivers of changes in the market.