Expert Why Economically Worrying, but Russia Will Do Well

Author Anton Durnetsov, Head of BG

Hey! My name is Anton Durnetsov. I am the head of BG, which is engaged in the selection of IT staff, rental of developers and development of its own IT products. I have an education in IT and MBA in Finance, I have been involved with investments for 9 years. - From crypto to classic stocks and bonds, and I am successfully building up capital. This is my first public experience of this kind, and I will try to explain my point of view on the economic situation in the world and in Russia, based on facts, people, graphs and figures.

My view of the current situation

I believe there will be a global crisis soon. Maybe that sounds banal.- It's been talked about for years. - But I'll give you an argument why I think so.

Most likely, this crisis will push to the end of the military conflict in Russia. Outside our country, military conflicts will intensify. For example, a conflict between the US and China is likely closer to 2028-2030.

But the most interesting thing is - Why would Russia be in an advantageous position? My argument:

1. Historical and statistical fact: at the end of any military conflict, economies, winners and losers alike, grow substantially.
2. The raw materials supercycle has begun. If we recall the period 1999-2007 in Russia, it was a period of stabilization and growth of the welfare of the population. - A similar period is beginning now.

Let’s see why the crisis is near.

The main indicators that are worth paying attention to

1. The cost of money in the economy

If money is expensive, it reduces inflation, but it hits consumer demand and investment activity, compresses the economy. If money is cheap - The economy is growing.

What is a crisis:

• The economy is slowing down or contracting.
• Unemployment is rising.
• The cost of servicing loans is increasing.

Against this background, people begin to sell off their assets: first liquid (stocks, money), then less liquid (real estate, cars).
It all depends on personal status: whether there are loans, mortgages, family, airbag. Many people find themselves in the same situation. - There are many assets, few buyers, prices are falling. That's how a recession forms.

Schedules and patterns

Fed Rate Schedule (1955–2025)

The scheme is as follows:

• Rising rates → plateau → recession → rate reduction.
  Examples: the dot-com bubble, the mortgage crisis of 2007-2008, the crisis of 2020 (covid).
  Now we are seeing a sharp increase in rates and plateau - The pattern of crises is repeated.

Inversion of yields of 2- and 10-year US bonds

When short-term bonds are more profitable than long-term bonds, this is a harbinger of a crisis. Before the last crisis, the schedule was in the negative zone. Now the indicators first went to the negative zone, then came out and continue to recover. - That's another signal.

Printing press of the USA and Europe

• Until 2008, this tool was little used.
• In 2008, the US printed about $ 3 trillion, the ECB - It's almost as late.
• In the crisis of 2020, almost $5 trillion was printed in two years.

Conclusion: The global money supply is growing, while production and resources remain unchanged. - It raises inflation.

Why this matters to Russia:

• The U.S. and Europe are creating a flood of fantasy.
• The raw materials produced by Russia are growing in price. For example, oil can rise from $60 to $250 per barrel.
• The same goes for gold and other commodities.

3. Military and Geopolitical Perspective

Russia will not be involved in military action on its territory. To understand the situation, it is convenient to use the concept drive Lev Gumileva, adapted by Andrei Shkolnikov:

1. The first - Nomads, conquerors of territories.
2. Second. - Emperors, expanding territory.
3. Third. - They develop science, culture and civilization.
4. Fourth. - They die first.

In Europe, almost the sixth generation of drive, there is no one to fight.
Russia has combat experience and a strong military, plus an ally in North Korea. Military conflicts will end sooner or later. - task - internal development.

Internal challenges and long-term prospects

2026, artificial intelligence and neural networks are on everyone’s radar. But the crisis may be related to AI for several reasons:

1. Technological Plateau: Quantum computers exist, but are inaccessible en masse.
2. Limited power: Neural networks consume enormous resources.
3. Automation: self-driving trucks, fully robotic factories, humanoid robots - Technology is accelerating.

Possible scenarios for the population:

• Minimum basic income to meet basic needs.
• Global outstaff companies with short-term hire of specialists.
• Only creative and professional staff will be required.

The world is changing rapidly, zones of influence are being redistributed, but Russia has domestic potential for sustainable development.

Despite the global crisis, inflation and technological challenges, Russia has every chance to use the situation to its advantage.

• Rising commodity prices.
• Strong military and strategic allies.
• Possibility of technological and industrial development.

Yes, the challenges are serious, but the future is bright. We're Russians. - And God is with us.

Expert contact:

Anton Durnetsov
CEO of BGStaff

Telegram:@antondurnetsov
Mail:promo@bgstaff.ru