Declining harvest in Canada will strengthen Russia’s position in the world market of peas and lentils
Shorter logistics leverage and high price attractiveness allow Russian products to successfully compete with supplies from other countries.
The global leguminous crop market may face a serious redistribution of trade flows in the 2026/27 season. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of Canada (AAFC), the production of key legumes in the country will decrease markedly. This creates favorable conditions for strengthening Russia’s position in strategically important export areas.
Canadian crops are on the decline
Canada has traditionally remained one of the world’s largest suppliers of peas and lentils. However, in the new agricultural season, a significant decrease in the production of both crops is expected.
According to the forecast of the AAFC, the total crop of peas and lentils may decrease from 8.2 million tons to 5.95 million tons. Pea production is estimated at 2.95 million tons, which is 24% lower than the previous season. The harvest of lentils may decrease even more significantly – to 2.35 million tons, or 31%.
Such a reduction in supply will inevitably have an impact on the global market, where Canada has been leading the supply of legumes for many years.
Exempt markets can move to new suppliers
Of particular importance is the fact that the main buyers of Canadian peas and lentils are also the largest importers of Russian products. These include China, India, Bangladesh, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.
These countries form a significant part of the world demand for legumes. The decline in Canadian exports could create an additional market niche for alternative suppliers.
For Russia, this situation opens up real prospects for increasing its presence in the international market.
Russia is already strengthening its export positions
The positive dynamics of Russian exports is already observed today. Since the beginning of the current season, supplies of peas and lentils to India, China, Bangladesh, the UAE and Turkey have reached about 2 million tons.
This is 400 thousand tons more than the same period last year. The growth indicates both stable demand for Russian products and increased confidence from the world’s largest importers.
In the face of reduced supply from Canada, Russian exporters have additional opportunities to increase sales and expand their share in key markets.
China remains the main advantage of Russian peas
A special place among export destinations is China - the world's largest consumer of peas.
In recent years, Russian suppliers have significantly strengthened their position in the Chinese market due to favorable logistics, stable supply volumes and competitive prices. These advantages continue today.
Against the background of the expected reduction of the Canadian crop, Russian peas may get additional opportunities to expand their presence in China. Shorter logistics leverage and high price attractiveness allow Russian products to compete successfully with supplies from other countries.
Prospects for the industry
The decline in pulse production in Canada is one of the most significant factors in the global market for the 2026/27 season. The weakening of the position of the largest exporter creates prerequisites for the redistribution of trade flows in favor of alternative suppliers.
Russia is already showing steady growth in supplies to key foreign markets and has the necessary potential to further expand exports. While maintaining the competitiveness of products, developing logistics and stable demand from Asian countries, Russian producers can significantly strengthen their positions in the global leguminous crop segment.
In the coming years, legumes may become one of the most dynamically developing areas of Russian agricultural exports, and the reduction of the Canadian harvest is an important catalyst for this process.
