World Food Crisis: How Conflict with Iran Affects Food and Fertilizer Prices

The global food market is once again in a turbulent zone. And this time it is no longer just about fluctuations in the price of grain or oil. A much deeper crisis is emerging that could affect the entire global food supply chain. - From fertilizers and fuels to livestock and consumer prices.

At first glance, the conflict over Iran seems to be a geopolitical story. But in the modern economy, wars have long ceased to be local events. Any tension around oil, gas and marine logistics almost instantly begins to affect the cost of food.

This is the main risk for the global agricultural market.

Why Iran Is So Important for World Food

Most people associate the Middle East primarily with oil. But the problem is much broader.

Modern agriculture depends on:
fuel
gas
• nitrogen fertilizers
• ammonia
• Maritime logistics

The production of ammonia fertilizers is impossible without gas.

In fact, the cost of food today is based on energy. The higher oil and gas prices - The more expensive.

• fertilizer,
• sowing
• logistics,
• recycling,
• feed,
• meat,
• vegetable oils.

That is why any conflict in the region immediately begins to affect global agricultural chains.

Brazil is the first risk zone

Brazil is particularly vulnerable today. - One of the largest agricultural exporters in the world and at the same time the largest importer of fertilizers.

The Brazilian agricultural model is critically dependent on external supplies.
The country buys huge amounts of fertilizers to grow soybeans, corn and other crops.

Even if the Iran conflict ends quickly, the market is already facing another challenge. - temporary interruption of supplies.

The agrarian cycle cannot be put on pause. Sowing is on a rigid calendar, and if fertilizers do not arrive on time, this automatically affects the future harvest.

This is why analysts are increasingly saying:
The world will not feel the main blow to food now, but closer to autumn and the next agricultural cycle.

Why soybeans are becoming a strategic commodity

Brazilian soybean - It's not just an export culture.

It is the main feed base for the world’s largest livestock sector. - Chinese.

China has been building a dependence on soybean imports for decades:

• for poultry,
• pig farming,
• feed production,
• food industry.

So any crop problems in Brazil automatically create pressure:
on feed prices,
for the cost of meat,
global food inflation.

In fact, we are talking about a chain reaction, where one crisis begins to pull several sectors of the world economy.

The main threat is not oil, but food.

Historically, food crises have been more dangerous than energy crises.

The rise in gasoline prices is causing discontent.
Rising food prices are causing political instability.

That is why many analysts have linked the possible peak of the global food crisis to political processes in the United States, including the midterm elections.

Food inflation - One of the most painful factors for any economy.
Especially when they are at the same time:
grain
meat
• vegetable oils
fertilizer
• logistics

Against the background of high debt burden and global inflation, such a scenario could become extremely difficult for many countries.

India, China and the EU are already in a zone of pressure.

The largest importers of raw materials and food remain particularly sensitive to price increases.

China depends on:

• soybean imports,
• feeding base,
• grain supplies,
• raw materials for livestock.

India - from:

• fertilizer,
• energy resources,
• raw materials for the agricultural sector.

Europe remains vulnerable because of:

• high energy prices,
• Dependence on external supply,
• The pressure on agriculture and industry at the same time.

If fertilizer prices continue to rise, the effects will quickly extend well beyond agriculture.

Africa could be the main victim of a new crisis

The most difficult scenario is emerging for Africa.

In many countries of the region, food security is already on the verge of:

• poverty,
• dependency on imports,
• lack of infrastructure,
• political instability.

A sharp jump in world prices can lead to:

• food insecurity,
• massive price increases,
• intensification of humanitarian crises,
• A new redistribution of political influence through food supply.

History shows that when food becomes scarce, it becomes not just a commodity, but an instrument of geopolitics.

Why Russia looks more resilient

Against the backdrop of global instability, Russia is in a stronger position than many import-dependent countries.

Reason. - availability of own resources:
grains
fertilizer
oil
gas
• agricultural land

This creates a high level of food autonomy.

Moreover, in the context of the global deficit, the importance of Russian supplies can only grow.
Especially for countries: Asia, the Middle East, Africa.

In fact, food is becoming as strategic a resource as energy.

The world is entering an era of food competition.

Recent years have shown:
The global market no longer guarantees stability.

Countries are beginning to fight: for fertilizer, for grain, for water, for logistics routes, for control of agricultural resources.

That’s why food is becoming part of geopolitics.

The next global crisis may not be about banks or oil, but about access to basic food.

The conflict over Iran - It’s not just a matter of politics or energy. This is a potential trigger for the global food crisis, the consequences of which may appear in the coming agricultural seasons.

Rising fuel and fertilizer prices set off a chain reaction:

• It's more expensive.
• the availability of raw materials is reduced,
• Food prices are rising.
• There is increasing pressure on import-dependent countries.

The world is gradually entering a new era, where food is becoming one of the main tools of economic and political sustainability.

And in this system, it is not the richest countries that will win, but those who are able to provide themselves with their own resources.